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Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
E. Maouhoub 87'
I. Sergeev 46'
K. Tyukavin 27'
11/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dynamo60%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Makhachkala18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.88
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90

Dynamo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.16
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.50

allows per match

Dynamo
1.29
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.60

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
82%
Dynamo or Dinamo Makhachkala
78%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
40%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo 2+ goals
56%
Dynamo 3+ goals
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
77%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.50 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dynamo scores more
60%
level
22%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
18%

Dynamo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
I. SergeevDynamoDynamo · F
7.9

Match Events

27'
K. Tyukavin↳ Y. Gladyshev
46'
I. Sergeev↳ Bitello
51'
Gamid Agalarov
55'
A. Dzhabrailov← M. Hosseinnejad
55'
R. Magomedov← H. Mrezigue
60'
Imadeddine Azzi
60'
Miro← G. Agalarov
61'
U. Babaev← Y. Gladyshev
61'
M. Azzi← T. Sundukov
67'
A. Kutitsky← I. Sergeev
70'
Imadeddine Azzi
70'
Imadeddine Azzi
84'
L. Zaydenzal← J. Caceres
84'
V. Okishor← N. Moumi Ngamaleu
84'
E. Maouhoub← K. Tyukavin
87'
S. Serderov← M. Moubarik
87'
E. Maouhoub

Possession

55%Dynamo

Shots

9Dynamo

Pass accuracy

50%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoDinamo
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots4
4Corners3
13Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots4
5On Target1
2Off Target3
2Blocked0
6Inside Box3
3Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
485Total Passes411
383Accurate Passes324
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Dynamo beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-0 in Premier League on November 23, 2025.

Goals: K. Tyukavin (27'), I. Sergeev (46'), E. Maouhoub (87').

Dynamo controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.