Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo
Dynamo
M. Hosseinnejad 74'
8/31/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala29%
×Draw28%
Dynamo43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.02
Dynamo
1.29

Dynamo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.95
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
57%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Dynamo
72%
Draw or Dynamo
71%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
11%
Dynamo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
8%
Dynamo 1+ goals
72%
Dynamo 2+ goals
37%
Dynamo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
41%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.95 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
29%
level
28%
Dynamo scores more
43%

Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. HosseinnejadDinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala · M
8.2

Match Events

31'
Anton Miranchuk
54'
R. Magomedov← G. Agalarov
74'
E. Maouhoub← A. Miranchuk
74'
M. Hosseinnejad↳ N. Glushkov
76'
S. Kagermazov← M. Azzi
83'
D. Skopintsev← Rubens
85'
A. Dzhabrailov← M. Hosseinnejad

Possession

45%Dinamo

Shots

9Dinamo

Pass accuracy

47%Dinamo

Statistics

DinamoDynamo
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots7
4Corners1
11Fouls20
Shots
9Total Shots7
2On Target2
5Off Target2
2Blocked3
5Inside Box2
4Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
322Total Passes391
196Accurate Passes270
61%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls20
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Dynamo 1-0 in Premier League on August 31, 2025.

Goals: M. Hosseinnejad (74').

Dynamo controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Anzhi Arena in Kaspijsk.