Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Dynamo: Result & Stats

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo

N. Ngamaleu 20'

9/29/2024

Premier League · Round 10Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala38%

×Draw28%

Dynamo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.16

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.22

Dynamo

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

1.06

creates per match

1.41

0.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.06

Dynamo

1.41

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.90

Dynamo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

65%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Dynamo

72%

Draw or Dynamo

62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

16%

Dynamo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

12%

Dynamo 1+ goals

69%

Dynamo 2+ goals

32%

Dynamo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

52%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Dynamo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dynamo attack 1.41 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

38%

level

28%

Dynamo scores more

35%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Fernández

Dynamo · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

Abakar GadzhievPenalty cancelled

20'

26'

30'

35'

46'

A. Sandrachuk← I. Shumakhov

64'

M. Hosseinnejad← A. Gadzhiev

65'

R. Magomedov← G. Agalarov

72'

D. Laxalt← D. Fomin

73'

Jemal Tabidze

77'

D. Skopintsev← R. Fernández

79'

S. Serderov← Z. Yusupov

87'

K. Zinovich← Egas Cacintura

89'

Y. Gladyshev← N. Ngamaleu

89'

E. Dasa← Arthur Gomes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoDynamo

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots12

9Corners5

16Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots12

1On Target4

7Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

330Total Passes420

203Accurate Passes291

62%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5

Premier League: Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Dynamo

Dynamo beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 in Premier League on September 29, 2024.

Goals: N. Ngamaleu (20').

Dynamo controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Anzhi Arena in Kaspiysk.

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Dynamo