Dinamo Makhachkala 2–2 Dynamo: Result & Stats | Cup

Dinamo Makhachkala

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dynamo

G. Agalarov 68'

S. Serderov 40'

Arthur Gomes 37'

D. Fomin 35'

9/18/2024

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala38%

×Draw25%

Dynamo37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.40

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.42

Dynamo

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.14

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.00

Dynamo

1.67

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.14

Dynamo

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Dynamo →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

63%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Dynamo

75%

Draw or Dynamo

62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

18%

Dynamo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

17%

Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Dynamo 2+ goals

41%

Dynamo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

51%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.00 + Dynamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dynamo attack 1.67 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

38%

level

25%

Dynamo scores more

37%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

D. Fomin

37'

Arthur Gomes

40'

S. Serderov

54'

G. Agalarov← S. Serderov

54'

N. Glushkov← V. Angban

61'

D. Skopintsev

68'

G. Agalarov

70'

M. Hosseinnejad← K. Zinovich

70'

A. Sandrachuk← J. Đapo

71'

Bitello← L. Gagnidze

71'

Y. Gladyshev← Arthur Gomes

77'

R. Fernandez

81'

T. Sundukov← S. Kagermazov

81'

J. Carrascal← D. Makarov

88'

D. Aleksandrov← A. Kutitskiy

90'

D. Aleksandrov

Dinamo

Dynamo

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Serderov

Manager: K. Bidzhiev

54'▲G. Agalarov←▼S. Serderov

54'▲N. Glushkov←▼V. Angban

70'▲M. Hosseinnejad←▼K. Zinovich

70'▲A. Sandrachuk←▼J. Đapo

81'▲T. Sundukov←▼S. Kagermazov

Dinamo Makhachkala substitutes

25Agalarov47Glushkov10Hosseinnejad72Sandrachuk77Sundukov1Goylo4Shumakhov5Tabidze17Krachkovskiy27Volk

Manager: M. Lička

71'▲Bitello←▼L. Gagnidze

71'▲Y. Gladyshev←▼Arthur Gomes

81'▲J. Carrascal←▼D. Makarov

88'▲D. Aleksandrov←▼A. Kutitskiy

Dynamo substitutes

10Bitello91Gladyshev8Carrascal30Aleksandrov47Kudravets52Smelov59Lepskiy88Okishor