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Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FFadvanced
4/4/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Semi-finalsTele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Djurgardens IF34%
×Draw22%
Hammarby FF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.60
Hammarby FF
1.83

Hammarby FF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
Hammarby FF
2.82

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
Hammarby FF
0.88

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
57%
Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF
78%
Draw or Hammarby FF
66%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
16%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
80%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
47%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
22%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
84%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
54%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
44%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
34%
level
22%
Hammarby FF scores more
43%

Hammarby FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.