Djurgardens IF 2–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Degerfors IF

B. Hegland 55', 54'

L. Fritzson 12'

3/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Djurgardens IF38%

×Draw23%

Degerfors IF40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.74

Djurgardens IF

1.69

Degerfors IF

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

1.33

2.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.71

Degerfors IF

1.33

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

2.14

Degerfors IF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

60%

Djurgardens IF or Degerfors IF

77%

Draw or Degerfors IF

62%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

19%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

82%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

50%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

24%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

82%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

52%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

49%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.71 + Degerfors IF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Degerfors IF attack 1.33 + Djurgardens IF defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

38%

level

23%

Degerfors IF scores more

40%

Degerfors IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Fritzson

54'

B. Hegland

55'

B. Hegland

Djurgardens

Degerfors

38

6

5

28

22

4

13

18

10

14

⚽

31

35

2

5

4

24

14

8

20

10

16

⚽2

Hegland

15

Fallenius

Manager: Jani Honkavaara

Djurgardens IF substitutes

45Manojlovic3Hien6Langhoff17Saeed19Okkels21Marques25Jawla27Vucenovic37Selfven

Manager: William Lundin

Degerfors IF substitutes

25Forsell11Vukojevic12Lindell15Moro20Barsoum24Leonardsson27Salifu30Tigerholm

Friendlies Clubs: Djurgardens IF 2–1 Degerfors IF

Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 21, 2026.

Goals: L. Fritzson (12'), B. Hegland (54', 55').

Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Djurgardens IF 2–1 Degerfors IF