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Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
M. Danielson 64'
M. Qurbanlı 34', 23'
G. Wikheim 2'
J. Gyau 20'
8/27/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Djurgardens IF54%
×Draw23%
Degerfors IF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.82
Degerfors IF
1.12

Djurgardens IF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.75
Degerfors IF
1.22

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
1.02
Degerfors IF
1.89

finishing

Djurgardens IF-0.25scores less
Degerfors IF-0.22scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
77%
Djurgardens IF or Degerfors IF
77%
Draw or Degerfors IF
46%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
30%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
54%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
27%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
67%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
31%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
70%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.75 + Degerfors IF defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.82

Degerfors IF attack 1.22 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
54%
level
23%
Degerfors IF scores more
23%

Djurgardens IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. QurbanlıDjurgardens IFDjurgardens IF · F
8.6

Match Events

2'
G. Wikheim
20'
J. Gyau↳ C. Gravius
23'
M. Qurbanlı↳ H. Radetinac
34'
M. Qurbanlı
63'
B. Šabović← H. Finndell
63'
Vá← H. Radetinac
64'
M. Danielson↳ M. Eriksson
71'
J. Salmon← O. Wallin
71'
Pashang Abdulla← J. Mårtensson
77'
J. Löfgren← R. Schüller
77'
N. Milleskog← G. Wikheim
84'
A. Hedén Lindskog← K. Mammar
89'
T. Bergvall← M. Qurbanlı

Possession

60%Djurgardens

Shots

15Djurgardens

Pass accuracy

51%Djurgardens

Statistics

DjurgardensDegerfors
Overview
60%Possession40%
15Total Shots11
4.20Expected Goals (xG)0.87
6Corners4
14Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target3
6Off Target4
3Blocked4
12Inside Box5
3Outside Box6
Passing
60%Possession40%
718Total Passes470
658Accurate Passes419
92%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF

Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 4-1 in Allsvenskan on August 27, 2023.

Goals: G. Wikheim (2'), J. Gyau (20'), M. Qurbanlı (23', 34'), M. Danielson (64').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.