Degerfors IF 1–1 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Djurgardens IF

D. Vukojevic 89'

J. Okkels 58'

10/4/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 26Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Degerfors IF41%

×Draw28%

Djurgardens IF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.09

Degerfors IF

1.29

Djurgardens IF

1.09

Degerfors IF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.09

creates per match

0.91

1.27

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.09

Djurgardens IF

0.91

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.27

Djurgardens IF

1.48

-0.69scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.69scores less

Djurgardens IF+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

69%

Degerfors IF or Djurgardens IF

72%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

59%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

18%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

72%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

37%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

14%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

66%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

30%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

57%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.09 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 + Degerfors IF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

41%

level

28%

Djurgardens IF scores more

31%

Degerfors IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

T. Bergvall

Djurgardens IF · D

7.5

Match Events

4'

11'

15'

42'

46'

54'

R. Schuller← D. Stensson

54'

J. Okkels← O. Fallenius

58'

J. Okkels↳ A. Stahl

61'

M. Diaby← P. Ndinga

67'

R. Omorowa← A. Taranis

75'

S. Ohlsson← M. Rafferty

75'

E. Barsoum← N. Girmai

78'

M. Tenho← J. Une-Larsson

78'

A. Ekdal← M. Siltanen

85'

Sebastian Ohlsson

89'

P. Johansson← T. Nguen

89'

D. Vukojevic↳ D. Sundgren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DegerforsDjurgardens

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots5

0.20Expected Goals (xG)0.19

7Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots5

5On Target2

3Off Target2

3Blocked1

4Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

314Total Passes437

216Accurate Passes334

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF

Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on October 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Okkels (58'), D. Vukojevic (89').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (57%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.

Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF