Djurgardens IF 5–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Degerfors IF

7/6/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 143Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Djurgardens IF54%

×Draw23%

Degerfors IF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.12

Djurgardens IF

1.82

Degerfors IF

1.12

Djurgardens IF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.22

1.02

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.75

Degerfors IF

1.22

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

1.02

Degerfors IF

1.89

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgardens IF-0.25scores less

Degerfors IF-0.22scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

77%

Djurgardens IF or Degerfors IF

77%

Draw or Degerfors IF

46%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

30%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

84%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

54%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

27%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

67%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

31%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

70%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.75 + Degerfors IF defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.82

Degerfors IF attack 1.22 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

54%

level

23%

Degerfors IF scores more

23%

Djurgardens IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff