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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Preview
15:00
Dynamo
Dynamo
5/29/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Anzhi Arena
Big match
43%
Dynamo
model favours
29%28%43%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala29%
×Draw28%
Dynamo43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.02
Dynamo
1.29

Dynamo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.95
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
57%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Dynamo
72%
Draw or Dynamo
71%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
11%
Dynamo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
8%
Dynamo 1+ goals
72%
Dynamo 2+ goals
37%
Dynamo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
41%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.95 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
29%
level
28%
Dynamo scores more
43%

Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
  • Dynamo have won 3 in a row
  • Style contrast — Dinamo Makhachkala play Direct / counter-attacking, Dynamo Defensively solid
  • Dynamo outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Dinamo Makhachkala outscore their xG (0.5 vs 0.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
Dynamo
Defensively solid
41%Possession55%
66%Pass accuracy79%
10.2Shots17.0
0.21xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo MakhachkalaDynamo

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
Draws
3
Dynamo
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 20%
0–31–00–40–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Makhachkala
WDLWL
Dynamo
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Makhachkala face Dynamo (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Dinamo Makhachkala hosting Dynamo. Match starts May 29, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Makhachkala host Dynamo at Anzhi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.