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Derby vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
9/16/2023League OneLeague One · Round 8Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby45%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.43
Portsmouth
1.08

Derby creates 32% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 134 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
55%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
22%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
76%
Derby 2+ goals
42%
Derby 3+ goals
17%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
66%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
29%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
61%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Derby scores more
45%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
29%

Derby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 1–1 Portsmouth

Derby and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in League One on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.