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Derby vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
T. Bradshaw 25'
12/14/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby41%
×Draw28%
Millwall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.27
Millwall
1.06

Derby creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Millwall
1.32

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
69%
Derby or Millwall
72%
Draw or Millwall
59%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
18%
Millwall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
65%
Millwall 2+ goals
29%
Millwall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
57%
Millwall (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millwall attack 1.12 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derby scores more
41%
level
28%
Millwall scores more
31%

Derby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. HutchinsonMillwallMillwall · D
7.6

Match Events

25'
T. Bradshaw↳ S. Hutchinson
57'
Chris Martin
67'
B. Thompson← J. Böðvarsson
74'
K. Dowell← J. Knight
81'
F. Jozefzoon← C. Forsyth
81'
A. O'Brien← T. Bradshaw
88'
M. Whittaker← D. Holmes
88'
M. Smith← B. Thompson
90'
Jake Cooper
90'
Mahlon Romeo

Possession

64%Derby

Shots

11Derby

Pass accuracy

55%Derby

Statistics

DerbyMillwall
Overview
64%Possession36%
11Total Shots7
9Corners3
13Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots7
1On Target2
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
7Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
504Total Passes279
384Accurate Passes170
76%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Derby vs Millwall

Millwall beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on December 14, 2019.

Goals: T. Bradshaw (25').

Derby controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.