Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 Universidad Catolica

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

E. Farías 71'

4/18/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca38%

×Draw28%

Universidad Catolica34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Deportivo Cuenca

1.23

Universidad Catolica

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.13

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.33

Universidad Catolica

1.18

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.13

Universidad Catolica

1.13

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.20scores less

Universidad Catolica-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

66%

Deportivo Cuenca or Universidad Catolica

72%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

13%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

68%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

32%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

53%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.33 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Universidad Catolica attack 1.18 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

38%

level

28%

Universidad Catolica scores more

34%

Deportivo Cuenca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

43'

46'

59'

63'

D. Armas← J. Valencia

65'

S. Zamora← F. Martínez

67'

67'

71'

75'

76'

80'

G. Nazareno← R. Johnson

86'

M. Posligua← J. Bolaños

89'

Gustavo Orlando Cortez

90+4'

Eric Tovo

90+4'

Eric Tovo

90+2'

A. Draper← L. Alzugaray

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoUniversidad

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots10

7Corners5

20Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots10

0On Target3

6Off Target7

Passing

50%Possession50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2