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Deportivo Cali vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
Preview
23:05
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
8/6/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Deportivo Cali
41%
Deportivo Cali
model favours
41%31%28%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%
×Draw31%
Águilas Doradas28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.09
Águilas Doradas
0.85

Deportivo Cali creates 28% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.15
Águilas Doradas
0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.82
Águilas Doradas
1.03

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
72%
Deportivo Cali or Águilas Doradas
69%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
17%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
10%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
57%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
21%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
59%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.15 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Águilas Doradas attack 0.88 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
41%
level
31%
Águilas Doradas scores more
28%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Águilas Doradas win just 15% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Deportivo Cali sit 6, Águilas Doradas 16 in the table
  • Águilas Doradas fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
Águilas Doradas
Defensively solid
52%Possession47%
79%Pass accuracy76%
12.5ShotsBiggest gap9.3
1.03xG1.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo CaliÁguilas Doradas

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

0
Deportivo Cali
1
Draws
2
Águilas Doradas
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 67%
1–21–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
WWWWW
Doradas
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Cali face Águilas Doradas (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Deportivo Cali hosting Águilas Doradas. Match starts August 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Cali host Águilas Doradas at Estadio Deportivo Cali.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.