Águilas Doradas 3–1 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

Yony Gonzalez 78'

H. Lopes 52'

J. Caballero 32'

A. Estupinan 61' (pen)

9/28/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Águilas Doradas42%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Cali30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

Águilas Doradas

1.30

Deportivo Cali

1.06

Águilas Doradas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

1.23

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.23

Deportivo Cali

0.93

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.20

Deportivo Cali

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

70%

Águilas Doradas or Deportivo Cali

72%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

58%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

73%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

37%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.23 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo Cali attack 0.93 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

42%

level

28%

Deportivo Cali scores more

30%

Águilas Doradas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Caballero

Águilas Doradas · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Nicolás Lara

6'

Joaquin Varela

32'

J. Caballero↳ J. Obregon

35'

Mateo Puerta

46'

F. Charales← J. Obregon

46'

F. Mimbacas← A. Hurtado

52'

H. Lopes↳ M. Ramirez

54'

Andrey Estupiñán

60'

Andres ColoradoPenalty confirmed

61'

A. EstupinanPenalty

78'

Yony Gonzalez↳ M. Ramirez

80'

J. Quinones← J. Varela

80'

Luis Orejuela← A. Colorado

80'

Javier Reina← J. Aponza

82'

J. E. Avalo Trejos← Yony Gonzalez

82'

H. Mancilla← J. Pineda

84'

J. Montoya← A. Estupinan

85'

Yani Quintero

90+1'

D. Lozano← J. Caballero

90+1'

B. Palacio← M. Ramirez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasDeportivo

Overview

39%Possession61%

17Total Shots11

2Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked4

10Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

232Total Passes363

169Accurate Passes281

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 3–1 Deportivo Cali

Águilas Doradas beat Deportivo Cali 3-1 in Primera A on September 28, 2025.

Goals: J. Caballero (32'), H. Lopes (52'), A. Estupinan (61' pen), Yony Gonzalez (78').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.

Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 3–1 Deportivo Cali