Águilas Doradas 1–1 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Cali

Jesús Rivas 55'

Á. Plata 30'

10/14/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Arturo Cumplido Sierra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Águilas Doradas46%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cali27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Águilas Doradas

1.44

Deportivo Cali

1.04

Águilas Doradas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 127 away

1.37

creates per match

1.04

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.37

Deportivo Cali

1.04

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Deportivo Cali

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

73%

Águilas Doradas or Deportivo Cali

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

54%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

76%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

42%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 129 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.37 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Deportivo Cali attack 1.04 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

46%

level

26%

Deportivo Cali scores more

27%

Águilas Doradas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Jesús Rivas

Águilas Doradas · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

27'

29'

30'

38'

46'

46'

55'

Jesús Rivas↳ G. Celis

58'

K. Osorio← J. Reina

58'

A. Mejía← F. Ángel

66'

J. Barrera← C. Colmán

73'

J. Quinones

76'

J. Cantillo← A. Estupiñán

76'

J. Galindo← Á. Plata

81'

N. Lara← J. Escobar

83'

Y. A. Gomez Mosquera

87'

J. Caballero← F. Salazar

87'

A. Fontana← J. Ramos

90+3'

J. Galindo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasDeportivo

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots10

8Corners8

17Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target3

5Off Target7

3Blocked0

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

333Total Passes191

260Accurate Passes120

78%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls18

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Cali

Águilas Doradas and Deportivo Cali drew 1-1 in Primera A on October 14, 2024.

Goals: Á. Plata (30'), Jesús Rivas (55').

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Cumplido Sierra in Sincelejo.

Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Cali