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Deportivo Cali vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
4/12/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Cali39%
×Draw30%
Águilas Doradas30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.11
Águilas Doradas
0.94

Deportivo Cali creates 18% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 34 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.17
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.90
Águilas Doradas
1.06

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
70%
Deportivo Cali or Águilas Doradas
70%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
16%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
10%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
61%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
24%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
56%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.17 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
39%
level
30%
Águilas Doradas scores more
30%

Deportivo Cali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
A. RodriguezDeportivo CaliDeportivo Cali · G
7.9

Match Events

4'
R. Bustamante
5'
J. Caballero
11'
D. LozanoGoal Disallowed - handball
18'
A. Estupinan
46'
J. C. Caldera Alvis← G. Corujo
46'
J. Colorado← R. Bustamante
54'
Javier Reina← A. Estupinan
54'
D. A. Valencia Mosquera← F. Castillo
64'
J. Barrera
64'
N. Lara Vasquez
66'
J. Arango← J. Barrera
72'
J. Rivas← J. Caballero
81'
A. Vasquez← Yony Gonzalez
90+2'
R. A. Benitez Hernandez← J. Salazar

Possession

58%Deportivo

Shots

12Deportivo

Pass accuracy

53%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoÁguilas
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots13
9Corners5
14Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target5
4Off Target3
5Blocked5
9Inside Box8
3Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
431Total Passes315
355Accurate Passes231
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls17
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Águilas Doradas

Deportivo Cali and Águilas Doradas drew 0-0 in Primera A on April 12, 2025.

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.