Deportivo Cali 2–4 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Águilas Doradas

A. Estupiñán 85' (pen)

J. Moreno 9'

Y. Góez 49'

J. Quiñónes 37'

Jesús Rivas 25'

V. Moreno 4'

4/1/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportivo Cali40%

×Draw30%

Águilas Doradas30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.94

Deportivo Cali

1.15

Águilas Doradas

0.94

Deportivo Cali creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 35 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.18

Águilas Doradas

0.94

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.93

Águilas Doradas

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

70%

Deportivo Cali or Águilas Doradas

70%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

17%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

61%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

24%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

58%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.18 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Águilas Doradas attack 0.94 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

40%

level

30%

Águilas Doradas scores more

30%

Deportivo Cali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

V. Moreno

Águilas Doradas · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

V. Moreno↳ F. Salazar

9'

J. Moreno↳ K. Osorio

10'

Jaider Moreno

25'

Jesús Rivas↳ J. Ramos

37'

J. Quiñónes↳ F. Salazar

41'

Gian Cabezas

46'

J. Barrera← G. Cabezas

46'

A. Estupiñán← J. Moreno

47'

49'

52'

54'

58'

Andrey EstupiñánGoal cancelled

60'

J. Valencia← Y. Gómez

70'

J. Díaz← Y. Góez

70'

A. Vuletich← J. Ramos

73'

75'

77'

83'

84'

Jonathan MarulandaPenalty confirmed

85'

A. EstupiñánPenalty

87'

Wilfrido De la Rosa

87'

J. Ávalo← Jesús Rivas

88'

E. Rivas← W. De La Rosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoÁguilas

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots13

4Corners2

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target7

5Off Target6

3Blocked0

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

479Total Passes343

399Accurate Passes256

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2