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Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
Preview
13:00
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
7/25/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Stora Valla
Big match
38%
Degerfors IF
model favours
38%27%34%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Degerfors IF38%
×Draw27%
Djurgardens IF34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.27
Djurgardens IF
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.08
Djurgardens IF
1.08

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.29
Djurgardens IF
1.46

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.79scores less
Djurgardens IF+0.28scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
66%
Degerfors IF or Djurgardens IF
73%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
62%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
17%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
72%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
36%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
14%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
70%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
33%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
53%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 + Degerfors IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
38%
level
27%
Djurgardens IF scores more
34%

Degerfors IF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Degerfors IF play Direct / counter-attacking, Djurgardens IF Defensively solid
  • Djurgardens IF outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Degerfors IF fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Degerfors IF
Direct / counter-attacking
Djurgardens IF
Defensively solid
45%Possession54%
77%Pass accuracy82%
12.4Shots14.5
1.08xGBiggest gap1.45
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Degerfors IFDjurgardens IF

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 80%
1–21–11–50–31–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
IF
LLLWD
IF
DWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Degerfors IF face Djurgardens IF (Allsvenskan)

Allsvenskan returns with Degerfors IF hosting Djurgardens IF. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Degerfors IF host Djurgardens IF at Stora Valla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.