Degerfors IF 1–1 BK Hacken: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BK Hacken

A. Taranis 71'

S. Andersen 19' (pen)

5/2/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 6Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Degerfors IF37%

×Draw25%

BK Hacken39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchBK Hacken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.48

Degerfors IF

1.43

BK Hacken

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

1.10

creates per match

1.50

1.45

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.10

BK Hacken

1.50

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.45

BK Hacken

1.75

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.33scores less

BK Hacken-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

BK Hacken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

61%

Degerfors IF or BK Hacken

75%

Draw or BK Hacken

63%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

17%

BK Hacken wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

76%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

42%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

17%

BK Hacken 1+ goals

77%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

43%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

49%

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.10 + BK Hacken defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

BK Hacken attack 1.50 + Degerfors IF defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

37%

level

25%

BK Hacken scores more

39%

BK Hacken at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Sundgren

Degerfors IF · D

7.3

Match Events

19'

S. AndersenPenalty

28'

Yiriyon Gideon

45+4'

Brice Wembangomo

46'

A. Taranis← N. Girmai

58'

D. Vukojevic← N. Moro

59'

Gustav Lindgren

71'

O. Leonardsson← E. Barsoum

71'

A. Taranis↳ D. Sundgren

72'

J. Agbonifo← A. Svanback

79'

D. Al Saed← M. Rygaard

87'

P. Dahbo← G. Lindgren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DegerforsBK

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots15

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.78

3Corners5

21Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target3

3Off Target5

5Blocked7

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

312Total Passes438

210Accurate Passes332

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4