BK Hacken 3–4 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Degerfors IF

P. Dahbo 84'

S. Gustafson 81' (pen)

S. Nioule 56'

E. Pihlstrom 73', 65'

N. Girmai 63'

L. Hien 36'

4/23/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 5Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

BK Hacken50%

×Draw22%

Degerfors IF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.38

BK Hacken

1.94

Degerfors IF

1.38

BK Hacken creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

2.04

creates per match

1.30

1.46

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

BK Hacken

2.04

Degerfors IF

1.30

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.46

Degerfors IF

1.83

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

BK Hacken-0.16scores less

Degerfors IF+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

73%

BK Hacken or Degerfors IF

78%

Draw or Degerfors IF

50%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

29%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

86%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

58%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

30%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

75%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

40%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

65%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.04 + Degerfors IF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.94

Degerfors IF attack 1.30 + BK Hacken defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BK Hacken scores more

50%

level

22%

Degerfors IF scores more

27%

BK Hacken at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Andersen

BK Hacken · M

8.6

Match Events

36'

L. Hien

46'

E. Pihlstrom← Z. Salifu

56'

S. Nioule↳ M. Rygaard

60'

A. Fisic← M. Rafferty

63'

N. Girmai↳ S. Ohlsson

64'

A. Layouni← S. Nioule

65'

E. Pihlstrom↳ A. Fisic

70'

T. Gronborg← E. Barsoum

70'

B. Morgado← S. Ohlsson

73'

E. Pihlstrom↳ T. Gronborg

75'

S. Jansson← F. Ohman

75'

P. Dahbo← S. Leach

81'

S. GustafsonPenalty

82'

J. Dembe← A. Faye

84'

90+9'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BKDegerfors

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots10

2.55Expected Goals (xG)1.24

7Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target5

5Off Target2

7Blocked3

16Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

699Total Passes338

618Accurate Passes247

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0

Allsvenskan: BK Hacken 3–4 Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat BK Hacken 4-3 in Allsvenskan on April 23, 2025.

Goals: L. Hien (36'), S. Nioule (56'), N. Girmai (63'), E. Pihlstrom (65', 73'), S. Gustafson (81' pen), P. Dahbo (84').

BK Hacken controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Gothenburg.

BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: BK Hacken 3–4 Degerfors IF