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Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
E. Bouzaiene 61'
9/3/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Degerfors IF37%
×Draw25%
BK Hacken39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.43
BK Hacken
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.10
BK Hacken
1.50

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.45
BK Hacken
1.75

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.33scores less
BK Hacken-0.20scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
61%
Degerfors IF or BK Hacken
75%
Draw or BK Hacken
63%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
17%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
76%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
42%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
17%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
77%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
43%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
49%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.10 + BK Hacken defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

BK Hacken attack 1.50 + Degerfors IF defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
37%
level
25%
BK Hacken scores more
39%

BK Hacken at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
E. BouzaieneDegerfors IFDegerfors IF · D
8.2

Match Events

56'
S. Korač← D. Bergqvist
56'
T. Totland← V. Lunddal Friðriksson
56'
A. Youssef← T. Sana
56'
M. Rygaard← I. Abdulrazak
61'
E. Bouzaiene↳ D. Campos
69'
Hugo Bolin
70'
M. Sonko← S. Hrstić
74'
J. Salmon← J. Mårtensson
76'
Rasmus Örqvist
78'
P. Dahbo← J. Laursen
85'
G. Lindgren← D. Campos

Possession

40%Degerfors

Shots

10Degerfors

Pass accuracy

48%Degerfors

Statistics

DegerforsBK
Overview
40%Possession60%
10Total Shots15
0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.94
2Corners6
6Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots15
2On Target2
7Off Target7
1Blocked6
5Inside Box10
5Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
395Total Passes582
306Accurate Passes492
77%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls8
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides0

Allsvenskan: Degerfors IF 1–0 BK Hacken

Degerfors IF beat BK Hacken 1-0 in Allsvenskan on September 3, 2023.

Goals: E. Bouzaiene (61').

BK Hacken controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.