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Defensa Y Justicia vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
F. Domínguez 83'
N. Fernández 74', 21'
M. Coronel 71' (pen)
10/22/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 27Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia38%
×Draw28%
Atletico Tucuman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa Y Justicia
1.25
Atletico Tucuman
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.09
Atletico Tucuman
1.11

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.23
Atletico Tucuman
1.42

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less
Atletico Tucuman-0.55scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw
66%
Defensa Y Justicia or Atletico Tucuman
72%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
62%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
17%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
71%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
36%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
53%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.11 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more
38%
level
28%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
34%

Defensa Y Justicia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
F. DomínguezDefensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia · M
8.2

Match Events

21'
Nicolás Fernández
21'
N. Fernández↳ J. López
23'
Manuel Capasso
44'
F. Domínguez← G. Alanís
54'
T. Galván← M. Duarte
58'
Manuel Capasso
58'
Manuel Capasso
63'
F. Di Franco← M. Garay
63'
R. Ruiz Rodríguez← E. Isnaldo
64'
I. Maestro Puch← C. Menéndez
68'
Matías OrihuelaPenalty confirmed
69'
Nazareno Colombo
71'
M. CoronelPenalty
74'
N. Fernández↳ G. Togni
76'
A. Lotti← M. Orihuela
83'
F. Domínguez
85'
A. Ríos← N. Fernández
88'
Francisco Di Franco
90+2'
Ramiro Ruiz Rodríguez

Possession

50%Defensa

Shots

12Defensa

Pass accuracy

52%Defensa

Statistics

DefensaAtletico
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots8
5Corners5
7Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots8
6On Target2
5Off Target5
1Blocked1
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
400Total Passes395
305Accurate Passes276
76%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls8
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Defensa Y Justicia 3–1 Atletico Tucuman

Defensa Y Justicia beat Atletico Tucuman 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 22, 2022.

Goals: N. Fernández (21', 74'), M. Coronel (71' pen), F. Domínguez (83').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires.