Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Atletico Tucuman

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

M. Merentiel 58'

A. Lotti 16'

4/17/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 10Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia38%

×Draw28%

Atletico Tucuman34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Defensa Y Justicia

1.25

Atletico Tucuman

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.09

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.09

Atletico Tucuman

1.11

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.23

Atletico Tucuman

1.42

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less

Atletico Tucuman-0.55scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

66%

Defensa Y Justicia or Atletico Tucuman

72%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

62%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

71%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

36%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.11 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

38%

level

28%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

34%

Defensa Y Justicia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

K. Gutiérrez

Defensa Y Justicia · M

7.5

Match Events

16'

A. Lotti↳ M. Ortiz

38'

Adonis Frías

42'

J. Rodríguez← A. Frías

46'

Gastón Gil Romero

46'

F. Pizzini← H. Fernández

58'

M. Merentiel↳ C. Rotondi

62'

L. Heredia← C. Menéndez

62'

65'

74'

77'

78'

L. Albertengo← G. Hachen

78'

H. Silva← N. Tripichio

78'

M. Orihuela← R. Ruiz

87'

G. Alanís← A. Soto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaAtletico

Overview

72%Possession28%

17Total Shots13

4Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots13

3On Target3

10Off Target7

4Blocked3

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

72%Possession28%

604Total Passes227

507Accurate Passes123

84%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1