Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Defensa Y Justicia

R. Tesuri 13'

A. Molinas 32'

6/15/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Tucuman48%

×Draw26%

Defensa Y Justicia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Atletico Tucuman

1.46

Defensa Y Justicia

1.00

Atletico Tucuman creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

0.81

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.43

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.81

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Tucuman-0.02on par

Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

74%

Atletico Tucuman or Defensa Y Justicia

74%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

24%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

18%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

63%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

26%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

65%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 17 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

48%

level

26%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

26%

Atletico Tucuman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Fiermarín

Defensa Y Justicia · G

7.9

Match Events

13'

R. Tesuri↳ M. Estigarribia

31'

Nicolás Romero

32'

A. Molinas↳ G. Alanís

33'

Aaron Molinas

41'

S. Lucero← J. López

46'

D. Cáceres← A. Molinas

59'

Nicolás Fernández

69'

F. Bonfiglio← M. Coronel

71'

N. Palavecino← G. Alanís

76'

Luciano Herrera

80'

N. Castro← J. Pereyra

84'

J. Giani← G. Acosta

84'

M. Bajamich← R. Tesuri

90+5'

Benjamin Schamine

90+3'

B. Schamine← N. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDefensa

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots16

2.55Expected Goals (xG)1.69

3Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots16

5On Target5

7Off Target8

2Blocked3

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box13

Passing

51%Possession49%

334Total Passes311

238Accurate Passes202

71%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

2.11Goals Prevented2.11

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Defensa Y Justicia

Atletico Tucuman and Defensa Y Justicia drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 15, 2024.

Goals: R. Tesuri (13'), A. Molinas (32').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.

Atletico Tucuman vs Defensa Y Justicia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Defensa Y Justicia