Atletico Tucuman 0–4 Defensa Y Justicia

Atletico Tucuman

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Defensa Y Justicia

F. Pizzini 76'

W. Bou 68' (pen)

G. Hachen 62'

M. Merentiel 20'

11/24/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 22Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Tucuman48%

×Draw26%

Defensa Y Justicia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Atletico Tucuman

1.46

Defensa Y Justicia

1.00

Atletico Tucuman creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

0.81

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.43

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.81

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Tucuman-0.02on par

Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

74%

Atletico Tucuman or Defensa Y Justicia

74%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

24%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

18%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

63%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

26%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

65%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 17 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

48%

level

26%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

26%

Atletico Tucuman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Pizzini

Defensa Y Justicia · M

8.5

Match Events

20'

M. Merentiel↳ C. Rotondi

58'

Guillermo Acosta

62'

G. Hachen↳ F. Pizzini

64'

F. Coman← R. Tesuri

64'

L. Heredia← R. Carrera

65'

E. Rosales← J. Pereyra

67'

Marcelo Ortíz

68'

W. BouPenalty

71'

R. Loaiza← G. Hachen

76'

O. Benítez← R. Ruiz

76'

F. Pizzini↳ N. Tripichio

78'

A. Soto← M. Benítez

78'

F. Paredes← C. Rotondi

85'

Abel Bustos

85'

M. Rodríguez← N. Tripichio

85'

B. Rivero← K. Gutiérrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDefensa

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots13

6Corners4

17Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target7

7Off Target5

5Blocked1

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

363Total Passes456

290Accurate Passes359

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0