D. Melipilla 0–0 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coquimbo Unido

6/19/2022

Copa Chile · 3rd RoundEstadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

D. Melipilla32%

×Draw36%

Coquimbo Unido31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.75

D. Melipilla

0.77

Coquimbo Unido

0.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

0.60

creates per match

1.10

0.40

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

D. Melipilla

0.60

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

allows per match

D. Melipilla

0.40

Coquimbo Unido

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–116%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

69%

D. Melipilla or Coquimbo Unido

64%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

68%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

10%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

54%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

18%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

4%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

53%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

17%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

51%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 0.60 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.10 + D. Melipilla defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

32%

level

36%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

31%

D. Melipilla at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff