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Coquimbo Unido vs D. Melipilla — Primera B 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
5/26/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 14Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Coquimbo Unido50%
×Draw27%
D. Melipilla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.45
D. Melipilla
0.88

Coquimbo Unido creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 52 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.48
D. Melipilla
1.04

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.71
D. Melipilla
1.42

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
77%
Coquimbo Unido or D. Melipilla
73%
Draw or D. Melipilla
50%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
25%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
77%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
42%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
18%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
59%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
22%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
69%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.48 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
50%
level
27%
D. Melipilla scores more
23%

Coquimbo Unido at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs D. Melipilla

Coquimbo Unido beat D. Melipilla 2-1 in Primera B on May 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo).