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Coquimbo Unido vs D. Melipilla — Copa Chile 2019

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
6/26/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · 3rd RoundEstadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Coquimbo Unido40%
×Draw30%
D. Melipilla30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.16
D. Melipilla
0.96

Coquimbo Unido creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.32
D. Melipilla
1.40

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.53
D. Melipilla
1.00

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
70%
Coquimbo Unido or D. Melipilla
70%
Draw or D. Melipilla
60%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
17%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
69%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
32%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
11%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
62%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
25%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
57%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.32 + D. Melipilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

D. Melipilla attack 1.40 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
40%
level
30%
D. Melipilla scores more
30%

Coquimbo Unido at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: Coquimbo Unido 2–1 D. Melipilla

Coquimbo Unido beat D. Melipilla 2-1 in Copa Chile on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.