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D. Melipilla vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera B 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
CANC
00:00
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
10/27/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 29Estadio Municipal Roberto Bravo Santibáñez (Melipilla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

D. Melipilla36%
×Draw29%
Coquimbo Unido36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.13
Coquimbo Unido
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 24 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.25
Coquimbo Unido
1.38

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.87
Coquimbo Unido
1.00

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
64%
D. Melipilla or Coquimbo Unido
71%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
64%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
15%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
68%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
31%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
11%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
68%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
31%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
50%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.38 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
36%
level
29%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
36%

D. Melipilla at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

D. Melipilla vs Coquimbo Unido — Match Preview

D. Melipilla face Coquimbo Unido on October 27, 2018 in this Primera B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

D. Melipilla host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Municipal Roberto Bravo Santibáñez (Melipilla).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.