Cusco 2–0 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Lima

F. Callejo 64'

N. Silva 52'

7/19/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cusco46%

×Draw29%

Alianza Lima25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.88

Cusco

1.29

Alianza Lima

0.88

Cusco creates 47% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

1.03

0.72

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Cusco

1.53

Alianza Lima

1.03

allows per match

Cusco

0.72

Alianza Lima

1.05

+0.58scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cusco+0.58scores more

Alianza Lima-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

75%

Cusco or Alianza Lima

71%

Draw or Alianza Lima

54%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

21%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

72%

Cusco 2+ goals

37%

Cusco 3+ goals

14%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

64%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 9 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.53 + Alianza Lima defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alianza Lima attack 1.03 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cusco scores more

46%

level

29%

Alianza Lima scores more

25%

Cusco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Colman

Cusco · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Aldair Fuentes

46'

J. Castillo← M. Huaman

52'

55'

56'

58'

61'

A. Burlamaqui← J. Archimbaud

61'

K. Quevedo← P. Cari

64'

F. Callejo↳ I. Colman

72'

M. Succar← G. Gentile

73'

J. Zevallos← M. Ruidias

82'

82'

86'

87'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoAlianza

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots12

1.89Expected Goals (xG)0.70

7Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target3

9Off Target8

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

527Total Passes327

463Accurate Passes281

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2