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Alianza Lima vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cusco
Cusco
E. Castillo 55' (pen)
P. Lavandeira Hernandez 18'
E. Noriega 9'
2/9/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Alianza Lima56%
×Draw22%
Cusco22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.99
Cusco
1.16

Alianza Lima creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
2.29
Cusco
1.60

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.71
Cusco
1.69

finishing

Alianza Lima-0.16scores less
Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
78%
Alianza Lima or Cusco
78%
Draw or Cusco
44%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
33%
Cusco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
86%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
59%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
32%
Cusco 1+ goals
69%
Cusco 2+ goals
32%
Cusco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
72%
Cusco (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

Cusco attack 1.60 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
56%
level
22%
Cusco scores more
22%

Alianza Lima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
R. LagosAlianza LimaAlianza Lima · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
E. Noriega↳ K. Quevedo
18'
P. Lavandeira Hernandez↳ E. Castillo
55'
E. CastilloPenalty
58'
A. Fuentes
68'
M. Succar← H. Barcos
68'
M. Ruidias← J. Zevallos
68'
M. Aucca← C. Diez
68'
J. Aquino← P. Da Silva
69'
F. Gaibor← P. Ceppelini
73'
A. Cantero← E. Castillo
74'
J. D'Arrigo← K. Quevedo
80'
J. Castillo← R. Garces
83'
A. Fuentes
83'
A. Fuentes
85'
C. Gamarra← N. Silva

Possession

41%Alianza

Shots

25Alianza

Pass accuracy

49%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaCusco
Overview
41%Possession59%
25Total Shots6
8Corners3
15Fouls11
Shots
25Total Shots6
8On Target3
10Off Target1
7Blocked2
11Inside Box1
14Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
321Total Passes474
278Accurate Passes424
87%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Alianza Lima vs Cusco

Alianza Lima beat Cusco 3-0 in Primera División on February 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Noriega (9'), P. Lavandeira Hernandez (18'), E. Castillo (55' pen).

Cusco controlled possession (59%) and registered 6 shots to 25.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.