Cusco 3–0 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Lima

M. Aucca 87', 73'

L. Colitto 2'

5/24/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cusco44%

×Draw29%

Alianza Lima27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.89

Cusco

1.24

Alianza Lima

0.89

Cusco creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.48

creates per match

1.05

0.72

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cusco

1.48

Alianza Lima

1.05

allows per match

Cusco

0.72

Alianza Lima

1.00

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cusco+0.65scores more

Alianza Lima-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

73%

Cusco or Alianza Lima

71%

Draw or Alianza Lima

56%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

20%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

71%

Cusco 2+ goals

35%

Cusco 3+ goals

13%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

63%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.48 + Alianza Lima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Alianza Lima attack 1.05 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cusco scores more

44%

level

29%

Alianza Lima scores more

27%

Cusco at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Aucca

Cusco · M

8.7

Match Events

2'

L. Colitto↳ I. Colman

5'

5'

17'

45+3'

46'

C. Cabellos← J. Castillo

46'

K. Serna← M. Huamán

46'

A. Fuentes← C. Zambrano

53'

Iván Colman

65'

F. Zanelatto← C. Waterman

66'

67'

73'

74'

81'

P. Cárdenas← N. Silva

81'

R. Fernández← I. Colman

87'

M. Aucca↳ L. Colitto

88'

E. Correa← L. Colitto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoAlianza

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots8

4Corners10

16Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target1

6Off Target4

1Blocked3

5Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

324Total Passes407

257Accurate Passes331

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2