Alianza Lima 1–2 Cusco: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cusco

C. Cabellos 88'

L. Ramos 81'

L. Colitto 79'

11/3/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Alianza Lima56%

×Draw22%

Cusco22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.16

Alianza Lima

1.99

Cusco

1.16

Alianza Lima creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.29

creates per match

1.60

0.71

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Alianza Lima

2.29

Cusco

1.60

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.71

Cusco

1.69

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Lima-0.16scores less

Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

78%

Alianza Lima or Cusco

78%

Draw or Cusco

44%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

33%

Cusco wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

86%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

59%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

32%

Cusco 1+ goals

69%

Cusco 2+ goals

32%

Cusco 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

72%

Cusco (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

Cusco attack 1.60 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

56%

level

22%

Cusco scores more

22%

Alianza Lima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Rodríguez

Alianza Lima · M

8.5

Match Events

17'

P. Cárdenas← M. Aucca

31'

Pablo Sabbag

35'

G. Aguirre← A. Arregui

46'

C. Cabellos← F. Zanelatto

46'

J. D´Arrigo← K. Quevedo

66'

José Zevallos

72'

V. Guzmán← R. Garcés

77'

A. Tamariz← J. Zevallos

79'

81'

84'

84'

85'

88'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaCusco

Overview

55%Possession45%

27Total Shots5

10Corners4

9Fouls17

Shots

27Total Shots5

8On Target2

15Off Target2

4Blocked1

16Inside Box2

11Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

457Total Passes398

382Accurate Passes320

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1