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Cucuta vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
J. Peralta 65', 36'
K. Londono 71'
L. Pons 29'
1/27/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta38%
×Draw29%
Bucaramanga34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.15
Bucaramanga
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.11
Bucaramanga
0.89

allows per match

Cucuta
1.25
Bucaramanga
1.19

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more
Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
66%
Cucuta or Bucaramanga
71%
Draw or Bucaramanga
62%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
16%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
68%
Cucuta 2+ goals
32%
Cucuta 3+ goals
11%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
66%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
29%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
53%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cucuta scores more
38%
level
29%
Bucaramanga scores more
34%

Cucuta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. PeraltaCucutaCucuta · F
9.2

Match Events

-5'
Jhonatan Agudelo
19'
Luciano PonsGoal cancelled
29'
L. Pons↳ F. Sambueza
36'
J. Peralta↳ L. Hernandez
48'
Jefferson Mena
60'
K. Londono← J. Salazar
60'
E. Batalla← J. Mosquera
62'
Santiago Orozco
62'
D. Calcaterra← L. Hernandez
65'
L. Flores← A. Zarate
65'
J. Peralta↳ E. M. Duarte Barajas
71'
Kevin Londoño
71'
K. Londono↳ E. Batalla
79'
S. Tamara← V. Mejia
79'
J. Agudelo← J. Peralta
82'
Fredy Hinestroza
85'
Leider Berdugo
86'
J. Ceballos← L. Berdugo
86'
J. Valencia← E. Arizalas
87'
B. Caicedo← F. Charrupi

Possession

48%Cucuta

Shots

10Cucuta

Pass accuracy

50%Cucuta

Statistics

CucutaBucaramanga
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots10
0Corners6
15Fouls18
Shots
10Total Shots10
2On Target4
4Off Target3
4Blocked3
1Inside Box7
9Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
366Total Passes393
291Accurate Passes319
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls18
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Bucaramanga

Cucuta and Bucaramanga drew 2-2 in Primera A on January 27, 2026.

Goals: L. Pons (29'), J. Peralta (36', 65'), K. Londono (71').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.