Bucaramanga 2–0 Cucuta: Result & Stats | Primera A

Bucaramanga

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cucuta

J. Pérez 71'

S. Romero 37'

8/12/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bucaramanga51%

×Draw29%

Cucuta20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchCucuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.70

Bucaramanga

1.31

Cucuta

0.70

Bucaramanga creates 87% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

0.72

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Cucuta

0.67

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Cucuta

1.34

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Cucuta+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Cucuta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

80%

Bucaramanga or Cucuta

71%

Draw or Cucuta

49%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

24%

Cucuta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

73%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

38%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

14%

Cucuta 1+ goals

50%

Cucuta 2+ goals

16%

Cucuta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

72%

Cucuta (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Cucuta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cucuta attack 0.67 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

51%

level

29%

Cucuta scores more

20%

Bucaramanga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Vargas

Bucaramanga · G

7.6

Match Events

20'

30'

37'

43'

55'

59'

64'

L. Miranda← A. Hinestroza

65'

Sergio Romero

66'

Y. Asprilla← J. Pineda

71'

J. Pérez↳ Y. Asprilla

73'

Jhonatan Agudelo

74'

W. Guisao← J. Agudelo

80'

Harrinson Mancilla

82'

Sergio Romero

82'

Sergio Romero

83'

E. Valencia← M. Pérez

86'

Elkin Blanco

86'

G. Gómez← J. Pérez

90+3'

J. Caballero← S. Cárdenas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaCucuta

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots15

2Corners9

16Fouls28

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target4

5Off Target7

2Blocked4

1Inside Box5

9Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes379

275Accurate Passes299

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls28

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Cucuta

Bucaramanga beat Cucuta 2-0 in Primera A on August 12, 2019.

Goals: S. Romero (37'), J. Pérez (71').

Cucuta controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.

Bucaramanga vs Cucuta — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Cucuta