Bucaramanga 1–0 Cucuta: Result & Stats | Primera A

Bucaramanga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cucuta

J. Pérez 83'

10/27/2020

Primera A · Round 16Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bucaramanga51%

×Draw29%

Cucuta20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchCucuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.70

Bucaramanga

1.31

Cucuta

0.70

Bucaramanga creates 87% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

0.72

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Cucuta

0.67

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Cucuta

1.34

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Cucuta+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Cucuta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

80%

Bucaramanga or Cucuta

71%

Draw or Cucuta

49%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

24%

Cucuta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

73%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

38%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

14%

Cucuta 1+ goals

50%

Cucuta 2+ goals

16%

Cucuta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

72%

Cucuta (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Cucuta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cucuta attack 0.67 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

51%

level

29%

Cucuta scores more

20%

Bucaramanga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

7'

27'

45'

45'

51'

62'

67'

Ó. Alcocer← C. Subero

68'

R. Torres← B. Castrillón

69'

H. Solano← G. García

79'

J. Solano← M. Rodríguez

80'

R. Ariza← H. Burbano

83'

J. Pérez↳ J. Caballero

85'

E. Valencia← J. Pérez

90+4'

J. Palacios

90+4'

M. Payares← J. Caballero

Bucaramanga

Cucuta

12

Chaverra

6

Mosquera

20

▼

2

15

21

7

▼

Rodríguez

16

▼

Pineda

10

▼

9

17

33

2

18

13

24

▼

Subero

10

⚽

▼

6

27

9

23

A

▼

Caballero

7

▼

Castrilló

Manager: G. Sanguinetti

67'▲Ó. Alcocer←▼C. Subero

68'▲R. Torres←▼B. Castrillón

85'▲E. Valencia←▼J. Pérez

90+4'▲M. Payares←▼J. Caballero

Bucaramanga substitutes

15Alcocer8Torres11Valencia25Payares20Aladesanmi5Manzano12Aguirre

Manager: J. Artigas

51'▲C. Mina←▼J. Pineda

69'▲H. Solano←▼G. García

79'▲J. Solano←▼M. Rodríguez

80'▲R. Ariza←▼H. Burbano

Cucuta substitutes

24Mina25Solano13Solano28Ariza19Marín1Giraldo11Oliveros

Primera A: Bucaramanga 1–0 Cucuta

Bucaramanga beat Cucuta 1-0 in Primera A on October 27, 2020.

Goals: J. Pérez (83').

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.

Bucaramanga vs Cucuta — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera A: Bucaramanga 1–0 Cucuta