Cucuta 2–0 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats | Primera A

Cucuta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bucaramanga

C. Valencia 78', 41' (pen)

9/7/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta38%

×Draw29%

Bucaramanga34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.07

Cucuta

1.15

Bucaramanga

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.11

creates per match

0.89

1.25

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cucuta

1.11

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Cucuta

1.25

Bucaramanga

1.19

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

66%

Cucuta or Bucaramanga

71%

Draw or Bucaramanga

62%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

16%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

68%

Cucuta 2+ goals

32%

Cucuta 3+ goals

11%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

66%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

29%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

53%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cucuta scores more

38%

level

29%

Bucaramanga scores more

34%

Cucuta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Valencia

Cucuta · F

8.0

Match Events

6'

J. Núñez← M. Pérez

10'

Camilo Mancilla

39'

Christian Vargas

41'

C. ValenciaPenalty

42'

Carmelo Valencia

53'

Marvin Vallecilla

54'

J. Pérez← Y. Asprilla

57'

60'

60'

62'

67'

C. Ibargüen← R. Robayo

70'

D. Achucarro← B. García

74'

John Hernandez

78'

C. Valencia↳ J. Chaverra

80'

M. Cardona← A. Sarmiento

86'

Sherman Cárdenas

90'

Johan Caballero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaBucaramanga

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots7

7Corners3

21Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target2

2Off Target2

3Blocked3

6Inside Box1

5Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

301Total Passes449

236Accurate Passes371

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls17

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Primera A: Cucuta 2–0 Bucaramanga

Cucuta beat Bucaramanga 2-0 in Primera A on September 7, 2019.

Goals: C. Valencia (41' pen, 78').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.

Cucuta vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Cucuta 2–0 Bucaramanga