Cruzeiro 0–2 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cruzeiro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ceara

Arthur 81', 63'

10/24/2018

Serie A · Round 28Estádio Mineirão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cruzeiro50%

×Draw27%

Ceara23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

Cruzeiro

1.40

Ceara

0.86

Cruzeiro creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

0.94

0.78

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.42

Ceara

0.94

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.78

Ceara

1.38

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.30scores more

Ceara-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

77%

Cruzeiro or Ceara

73%

Draw or Ceara

50%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

24%

Ceara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

75%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

41%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

17%

Ceara 1+ goals

58%

Ceara 2+ goals

21%

Ceara 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

68%

Ceara (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.42 + Ceara defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ceara attack 0.94 + Cruzeiro defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

50%

level

27%

Ceara scores more

23%

Cruzeiro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Arthur

Ceara · F

8.6

Match Events

57'

61'

63'

65'

71'

Raniel← A. Cabral

75'

Valdo← Leandro Carvalho

79'

Felipe Azevedo← Calyson

81'

84'

85'

87'

88'

Pedro Ken← Ricardinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroCeara

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots7

10Corners1

7Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target3

9Off Target2

3Blocked2

11Inside Box2

7Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

552Total Passes346

481Accurate Passes271

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Cruzeiro vs Ceara

Ceara beat Cruzeiro 2-0 in Serie A on October 24, 2018.

Goals: Arthur (63', 81').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Mineirão in Belo Horizonte.

Cruzeiro vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cruzeiro vs Ceara