Ceara 0–0 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cruzeiro

9/25/2019

Serie A · Round 21Estadio Castelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara45%

×Draw30%

Cruzeiro25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.82

Ceara

1.21

Cruzeiro

0.82

Ceara creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

1.12

creates per match

0.91

0.74

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ceara

1.12

Cruzeiro

0.91

allows per match

Ceara

0.74

Cruzeiro

1.29

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par

Cruzeiro+0.03on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

75%

Ceara or Cruzeiro

70%

Draw or Cruzeiro

55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

20%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

70%

Ceara 2+ goals

34%

Ceara 3+ goals

12%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

56%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

20%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

64%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Cruzeiro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cruzeiro attack 0.91 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more

45%

level

30%

Cruzeiro scores more

25%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Fábio

Cruzeiro · G

9.0

Match Events

15'

Fabrício Bruno

26'

Fred← Pedro Rocha

56'

Mateus Gonçalves← Felipe Silva

60'

Ezequiel← Robinho

64'

Leandro Carvalho

70'

Felippe Cardoso← Bergson

74'

Mauricio← David

79'

Fábio

83'

Fred

89'

Wescley← Leandro Carvalho

90'

Samuel Xavier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaCruzeiro

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots14

8Corners3

18Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots14

8On Target3

6Off Target6

5Blocked5

9Inside Box10

10Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

404Total Passes466

306Accurate Passes365

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

18Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2