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Ceara vs Cruzeiro — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
Sassá 19'
6/3/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 9Estadio Castelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara45%
×Draw30%
Cruzeiro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.21
Cruzeiro
0.82

Ceara creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.12
Cruzeiro
0.91

allows per match

Ceara
0.74
Cruzeiro
1.29

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par
Cruzeiro+0.03on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
75%
Ceara or Cruzeiro
70%
Draw or Cruzeiro
55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
20%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
70%
Ceara 2+ goals
34%
Ceara 3+ goals
12%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
56%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
20%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
64%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Cruzeiro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cruzeiro attack 0.91 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more
45%
level
30%
Cruzeiro scores more
25%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

104
EversonCearaCeara · G
7.7

Match Events

19'
Sassá↳ Bruno Silva
26'
Éder Luís← Wescley
32'
Bruno Silva
33'
Arthur
46'
F. Mancuello← Bruno Silva
55'
Sassá
57'
J. Reina← Douglas Coutinho
65'
Rafael Sóbis
67'
Raniel← Sassá
72'
Juninho Piauiense← Ricardinho
80'
Juninho
81'
Juninho← Rafael Sóbis
87'
Lucas Silva

Possession

42%Ceara

Shots

9Ceara

Pass accuracy

49%Ceara

Statistics

CearaCruzeiro
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots13
1Corners6
13Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots13
4On Target7
4Off Target5
1Blocked1
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box8
Passing
42%Possession58%
405Total Passes563
343Accurate Passes498
85%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Ceara vs Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro beat Ceara 1-0 in Serie A on June 3, 2018.

Goals: Sassá (19').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Castelão in Fortaleza.