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Ceara vs Cruzeiro — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
Vinicius Zanocelo 56'
Willian Machado 71' (OG)
11/30/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 36Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara45%
×Draw30%
Cruzeiro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.21
Cruzeiro
0.82

Ceara creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.12
Cruzeiro
0.91

allows per match

Ceara
0.74
Cruzeiro
1.29

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par
Cruzeiro+0.03on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
75%
Ceara or Cruzeiro
70%
Draw or Cruzeiro
55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
20%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
70%
Ceara 2+ goals
34%
Ceara 3+ goals
12%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
56%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
20%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
64%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Cruzeiro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cruzeiro attack 0.91 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more
45%
level
30%
Cruzeiro scores more
25%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Lucas MugniCearaCeara · M
7.3

Match Events

35'
Walace
42'
L. Sinisterra← K. Arroyo
45+2'
Lucas Silva
56'
Vinicius Zanocelo↳ Lucas Mugni
65'
Paulo Baya← Fernandinho
69'
Matheus Bahia
69'
Matheus Pereira
71'
Willian MachadoOwn goal
73'
Gabriel Barbosa
73'
Vina← Lucas Mugni
80'
Willian Machado
80'
Eduardo← Lucas Silva
80'
Japa← Christian
80'
Y. Bolasie← Gabriel Barbosa
85'
Aylon← Pedro Raul
85'
Richardson← Vinicius Zanocelo
85'
Fernando Sobral← Diego
89'
Matheus Henrique← Walace

Possession

37%Ceara

Shots

11Ceara

Pass accuracy

47%Ceara

Statistics

CearaCruzeiro
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots13
0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.84
5Corners8
12Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots13
3On Target3
4Off Target4
4Blocked6
7Inside Box4
4Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
253Total Passes440
193Accurate Passes383
76%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-0.30Goals Prevented-0.30
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Ceara vs Cruzeiro

Ceara and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 30, 2025.

Goals: Vinicius Zanocelo (56'), Willian Machado (71' o.g.).

Cruzeiro controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo in Fortaleza.