Coritiba 3–1 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ceara

Matheus Frizzo 82'

Júnior Brumado 64'

Robson 60'

F. Barceló 79'

9/19/2024

Serie B · Round 27Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Coritiba48%

×Draw25%

Ceara27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.09

Coritiba

1.56

Ceara

1.09

Coritiba creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.62

creates per match

1.26

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Coritiba

1.62

Ceara

1.26

allows per match

Coritiba

0.92

Ceara

1.50

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.32scores less

Ceara-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

73%

Coritiba or Ceara

75%

Draw or Ceara

52%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

25%

Ceara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

79%

Coritiba 2+ goals

46%

Coritiba 3+ goals

21%

Ceara 1+ goals

66%

Ceara 2+ goals

30%

Ceara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

64%

Ceara (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.92 · 10 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.62 + Ceara defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ceara attack 1.26 + Coritiba defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Coritiba scores more

48%

level

25%

Ceara scores more

27%

Coritiba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Júnior Brumado

Coritiba · F

8.2

Match Events

24'

Bruno Ferreira← Richard

46'

Robson← Vini Paulista

52'

55'

59'

60'

64'

64'

Rafinha← L. Mugni

64'

Júnior Brumado↳ Lucas Ronier

67'

Matheus Frizzo← Josué

73'

Thalisson← Marcelo Benevenuto

73'

Everton Morelli← Zé Gabriel

74'

Matheus Frizzo

77'

Jamerson← Rodrigo Gelado

79'

F. Barceló↳ Richardson

82'

Matheus Frizzo↳ Júnior Brumado

84'

Raí Ramos← Rafael Ramos

84'

J. Recalde← Richardson

90'

Rafinha

90+2'

J. Recalde

90+5'

S. Gomez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaCeara

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots8

3Corners0

17Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

420Total Passes358

341Accurate Passes275

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1

Serie B: Coritiba 3–1 Ceara

Coritiba beat Ceara 3-1 in Serie B on September 19, 2024.

Goals: Robson (60'), Júnior Brumado (64'), F. Barceló (79'), Matheus Frizzo (82').

Coritiba controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.

Coritiba vs Ceara — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Coritiba 3–1 Ceara