Ceara 1–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coritiba

S. Mendoza 37'

A. Martínez 85'

6/4/2022

Serie A · Round 9Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara46%

×Draw28%

Coritiba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.94

Ceara

1.34

Coritiba

0.94

Ceara creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

1.14

0.74

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ceara

1.12

Coritiba

1.14

allows per match

Ceara

0.74

Coritiba

1.56

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par

Coritiba+0.45scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

74%

Ceara or Coritiba

72%

Draw or Coritiba

54%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

22%

Coritiba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

74%

Ceara 2+ goals

39%

Ceara 3+ goals

15%

Coritiba 1+ goals

61%

Coritiba 2+ goals

24%

Coritiba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

64%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.56 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Coritiba defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Coritiba attack 1.14 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ceara scores more

46%

level

28%

Coritiba scores more

26%

Ceara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Alex Muralha

Coritiba · G

8.3

Match Events

15'

Willian Farias

24'

Nathan Mendes

29'

Val← Willian Farias

37'

S. Mendoza↳ Bruno Pacheco

45'

Val

50'

Bernardo

56'

Alef Manga← Fabrício Daniel

61'

Nino Paraíba← Míchel Macedo

61'

Fernando Sobral← Erick

61'

Matheus Peixoto← Cleber

70'

Robinho← Bernardo Lemes

70'

Natanael← Nathan

71'

Clayton← Thonny Anderson

80'

Victor Luis← Bruno Pacheco

85'

A. Martínez↳ Alef Manga

87'

João Victor← Richard Cândido

90+3'

Rodrigo Lindoso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaCoritiba

Overview

51%Possession49%

22Total Shots14

5Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots14

10On Target6

6Off Target4

6Blocked4

11Inside Box4

11Outside Box10

Passing

51%Possession49%

423Total Passes419

360Accurate Passes337

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1