Ceara 1–0 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ceara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coritiba

F. Barceló 49'

5/31/2024

Serie B · Round 8Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ceara43%

×Draw28%

Coritiba29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Ceara

1.33

Coritiba

1.04

Ceara creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ceara

1.17

Coritiba

1.03

allows per match

Ceara

1.04

Coritiba

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par

Coritiba-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

71%

Ceara or Coritiba

72%

Draw or Coritiba

57%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

20%

Coritiba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

74%

Ceara 2+ goals

38%

Ceara 3+ goals

15%

Coritiba 1+ goals

65%

Coritiba 2+ goals

28%

Coritiba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

60%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.17 + Coritiba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Coritiba attack 1.03 + Ceara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceara scores more

43%

level

28%

Coritiba scores more

29%

Ceara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Erick Pulga

Ceara · M

7.7

Match Events

24'

44'

45+1'

46'

46'

Bruno Ferreira← Richard

46'

Geovane Meurer← Vini Paulista

49'

F. Barceló↳ Lourenço

55'

Guilherme Castilho← Lourenço

56'

Fransérgio← Everton Morelli

56'

Yago Ferreira← Matheus Frizzo

59'

Lucas Ronier

68'

Saulo Mineiro← Aylon

68'

Richardson← Jean Irmer

70'

Wesley Pomba← Lucas Ronier

70'

Brandão← Leandro Damião

76'

Paulo Victor

80'

Matheus Bahia← Paulo Victor

89'

David Ricardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaCoritiba

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots6

9Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target1

3Off Target4

4Blocked1

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

373Total Passes347

296Accurate Passes266

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2