Coritiba 1–0 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Coritiba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ceara

Fabrício Daniel 30'

9/28/2022

Serie A · Round 28Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coritiba37%

×Draw28%

Ceara35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.16

Coritiba

1.21

Ceara

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

0.87

1.44

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Coritiba

1.07

Ceara

0.87

allows per match

Coritiba

1.44

Ceara

1.35

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.07on par

Ceara-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

65%

Coritiba or Ceara

72%

Draw or Ceara

63%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

16%

Ceara wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

70%

Coritiba 2+ goals

34%

Coritiba 3+ goals

12%

Ceara 1+ goals

69%

Ceara 2+ goals

32%

Ceara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

52%

Ceara (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.44 · 17 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.35 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.07 + Ceara defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ceara attack 0.87 + Coritiba defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coritiba scores more

37%

level

28%

Ceara scores more

35%

Coritiba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

J. Trindade

Coritiba · M

7.5

Match Events

23'

Marcos Victor← Messias

30'

Fabrício Daniel↳ Alef Manga

33'

Vina

45+1'

Fabrício Daniel

46'

Boschilia← Robinho

61'

Erick← Lima

61'

Iury Castilho← S. Mendoza

62'

Richardson

67'

WarleyPenalty cancelled

72'

Victor Luis

74'

Hugo← Warley

81'

Marcos VictorGoal cancelled

82'

Marcos Victor

89'

Guilherme Castilho← Richardson

90+1'

Luciano Castan

90'

Léo Gamalho← Alef Manga

90'

Bernardo Lemes← Fabrício Daniel

90'

J. Vásquez← Jô

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaCeara

Overview

32%Possession68%

14Total Shots11

7Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target3

7Off Target4

3Blocked4

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

257Total Passes552

195Accurate Passes489

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Ceara

Coritiba beat Ceara 1-0 in Serie A on September 28, 2022.

Goals: Fabrício Daniel (30').

Ceara controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.

Coritiba vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Ceara