Columbus Crew 3–2 Colorado Rapids: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Colorado Rapids

C. Hernández 72'

S. Zawadzki 62'

L. Zelarayán 37'

C. Bassett 90+5'

S. Nicholson 9'

5/31/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 22Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Columbus Crew47%

×Draw24%

Colorado Rapids29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchColorado Rapids

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.25

Columbus Crew

1.65

Colorado Rapids

1.25

Columbus Crew creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.51

creates per match

1.45

1.05

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.51

Colorado Rapids

1.45

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.05

Colorado Rapids

1.79

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.16scores more

Colorado Rapids-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Colorado Rapids →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

71%

Columbus Crew or Colorado Rapids

76%

Draw or Colorado Rapids

53%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

24%

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

81%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

49%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

23%

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals

71%

Colorado Rapids 2+ goals

36%

Colorado Rapids 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

62%

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

Colorado Rapids away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.79 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.51 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Colorado Rapids attack 1.45 + Columbus Crew defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

47%

level

24%

Colorado Rapids scores more

29%

Columbus Crew at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Zelarayán

Columbus Crew · F

9.2

Match Events

9'

S. Nicholson

37'

L. Zelarayán↳ Y. Yeboah

46'

S. Zawadzki← P. Quinton

59'

C. Harris← J. Lewis

60'

C. Bassett← C. Ronan

61'

J. Medranda← Y. Yeboah

62'

S. Zawadzki↳ L. Zelarayán

72'

C. Hernández↳ L. Zelarayán

73'

J. Russell-Rowe← L. Zelarayán

74'

Moise Bombito

79'

M. Vargas← D. Leyva

79'

R. Cabral← M. Bombito

84'

S. Beitashour← K. Rosenberry

86'

Patrick Schulte

90+5'

C. Bassett↳ C. Harris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColumbusColorado

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots9

1.20Expected Goals (xG)1.23

7Corners0

6Fouls5

Shots

17Total Shots9

6On Target3

6Off Target5

5Blocked1

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

558Total Passes332

488Accurate Passes270

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides6