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Colorado Rapids vs Columbus Crew — Major League Soccer 2026

Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
D. Rubio 41' (pen)
J. Hernández 5'
8/14/2022Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 35Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Colorado Rapids43%
×Draw24%
Columbus Crew33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rapids
1.63
Columbus Crew
1.42

Colorado Rapids creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

creates per match

Colorado Rapids
1.82
Columbus Crew
1.30

allows per match

Colorado Rapids
1.54
Columbus Crew
1.44

finishing

Colorado Rapids-0.27scores less
Columbus Crew+0.25scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

Columbus Crew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw
67%
Colorado Rapids or Columbus Crew
76%
Draw or Columbus Crew
57%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
22%
Columbus Crew wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
80%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
48%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
22%
Columbus Crew 1+ goals
76%
Columbus Crew 2+ goals
41%
Columbus Crew 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
56%
Columbus Crew (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.54 · 20 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 1.82 + Columbus Crew defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Columbus Crew attack 1.30 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more
43%
level
24%
Columbus Crew scores more
33%

Colorado Rapids at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
D. RubioColorado RapidsColorado Rapids · M
7.9

Match Events

5'
J. Hernández↳ Pedro Santos
25'
Gyasi ZardesGoal cancelled
28'
Lucas Esteves
35'
Darlington Nagbe
38'
Danny Wilson
40'
Artur
41'
D. RubioPenalty
42'
Bryan Acosta
63'
Lucas Zelarayán
63'
S. Beitashour← Lucas Esteves
63'
S. Nicholson← J. Lewis
71'
E. Hurtado← L. Díaz
78'
Diego Rubio
80'
C. Warner← F. Gutiérrez
80'
J. Igbekeme← D. Etienne
86'
D. Toure← M. Barrios
90+3'
A. Morris← Artur

Possession

42%Colorado

Shots

12Colorado

Pass accuracy

48%Colorado

Statistics

ColoradoColumbus
Overview
42%Possession58%
12Total Shots14
3Corners6
14Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots14
3On Target5
6Off Target4
3Blocked5
8Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
312Total Passes442
244Accurate Passes368
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls13
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Major League Soccer: Colorado Rapids 1–1 Columbus Crew

Colorado Rapids and Columbus Crew drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on August 14, 2022.

Goals: J. Hernández (5'), D. Rubio (41' pen).

Columbus Crew controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Denver, Colorado.