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Colorado Rapids vs Columbus Crew — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
FT
1 – 4
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
A. Manyoma 97'
Unknown 85', 77', 61', 50'
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colorado Rapids13%
×Draw19%
Columbus Crew68%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rapids
0.83
Columbus Crew
2.17

Columbus Crew creates 161% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Colorado Rapids
1.00
Columbus Crew
2.33

allows per match

Colorado Rapids
2.00
Columbus Crew
0.67

finishing

Colorado Rapids+0.00on par
Columbus Crew+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

Columbus Crew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw
32%
Colorado Rapids or Columbus Crew
81%
Draw or Columbus Crew
87%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
4%
Columbus Crew wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
56%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
20%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
5%
Columbus Crew 1+ goals
89%
Columbus Crew 2+ goals
64%
Columbus Crew 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
16%
Columbus Crew (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 1.00 + Columbus Crew defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Columbus Crew attack 2.33 + Colorado Rapids defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more
13%
level
19%
Columbus Crew scores more
68%

Columbus Crew at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
61'
77'
85'
97'
A. Manyoma

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Colorado Rapids 1–4 Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew beat Colorado Rapids 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.

Goals: ? (50', 61', 77', 85'), A. Manyoma (97').