Colorado Rapids 3–2 Columbus Crew: Result & Stats

Colorado Rapids

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Columbus Crew

N. Mezquida 89'

J. Lewis 45'

T. Smith 23'

G. Zardes 54'

Pedro Santos 28'

5/26/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 17Dick's Sporting Goods Park (Denver, Colorado)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Colorado Rapids43%

×Draw24%

Columbus Crew33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado RapidsExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.42

Colorado Rapids

1.63

Columbus Crew

1.42

Colorado Rapids creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

1.82

creates per match

1.30

1.54

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Colorado Rapids

1.82

Columbus Crew

1.30

allows per match

Colorado Rapids

1.54

Columbus Crew

1.44

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Colorado Rapids-0.27scores less

Columbus Crew+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw

67%

Colorado Rapids or Columbus Crew

76%

Draw or Columbus Crew

57%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+

22%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals

80%

Colorado Rapids 2+ goals

48%

Colorado Rapids 3+ goals

22%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

76%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

41%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)

56%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.54 · 20 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 1.82 + Columbus Crew defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Columbus Crew attack 1.30 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more

43%

level

24%

Columbus Crew scores more

33%

Colorado Rapids at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

T. Smith↳ J. Price

28'

Pedro Santos↳ H. Jiménez

43'

Josh Williams← H. Jiménez

45'

J. Lewis↳ S. Nicholson

50'

G. Sauro

54'

G. Zardes↳ F. Higuaín

56'

J. Price

67'

N. Mezquida← S. Nicholson

67'

P. Mullins← F. Higuaín

70'

Robinho← D. Accam

77'

Andre Shinyashiki← J. Lewis

85'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColoradoColumbus

Overview

43%Possession57%

18Total Shots12

7Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots12

4On Target4

11Off Target6

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

374Total Passes504

310Accurate Passes442

83%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Colorado Rapids vs Columbus Crew

Colorado Rapids beat Columbus Crew 3-2 in Major League Soccer on May 26, 2019.

Goals: T. Smith (23'), Pedro Santos (28'), J. Lewis (45'), G. Zardes (54'), N. Mezquida (89').

Columbus Crew controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park (Denver, Colorado).

Colorado Rapids vs Columbus Crew — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Colorado Rapids vs Columbus Crew